Stocks returned from the Independence Day break to another record for the Dow, a real flare-up in the Iran conflict, and the biggest chip IPO debut since SpaceX — and by Friday, both the $SPY and $QQQ had still notched weekly gains. Here's what happened, what it means, and how the coming week — with the banks, Netflix, June CPI, and the new Fed Chair's first Congressional testimony all landing inside a single 24-hour window — could reshape the second-half narrative.
Key numbers to watch
Consensus, prior-quarter or whisper context, and why each line matters.
| Metric | Consensus | Prior / whisper | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dow Jones Industrial Avg | 53,000+ | First time ever (Mon) | Closed the week at 52,637.01. |
| S&P 500 | 7,575.39 | +0.42% Fri | Weekly gain despite mid-week rotation. |
| Nasdaq Composite | 26,281.61 | +0.29% Fri | Also a weekly gain. |
| Russell 2000 | > 3,000 | Reclaimed level | Small-cap breadth improving. |
| Meta weekly move | ~+15% | Best week since early 2024 | BofA note on AI cost per gigawatt. |
| SK Hynix U.S. IPO | +14% debut | 7x oversubscribed | Biggest chip listing since SpaceX. |
Consensus figures are Street estimates as of publish date and shift as analyst revisions land. Live consensus and implied move are on the stock page.
The week that was
**Monday** — a record-setting open. $DJI crossed 53,000 for the first time, Nasdaq jumped over 1%, and Big Tech ($GOOGL, $AAPL, $META, $TSLA) rallied broadly as chip stocks shook off their late-June slump.
**Tuesday–Wednesday** — the rotation reversed hard. $MU fell 4.7%, the semiconductor ETF $SMH dropped more than 3%, and all three indexes pulled back. The bigger story was oil: the U.S. Treasury moved to revoke Iran's oil export license, tanker threat levels in the Strait of Hormuz were raised to "severe," and by Wednesday the U.S. had resumed strikes after Trump signalled the ceasefire was effectively over. Markets stayed remarkably calm through it — a tepid, directionless session rather than a risk-off rout.
Wednesday also brought the **first FOMC minutes under new Chair Kevin Warsh**, confirming the committee remains genuinely split between members leaning toward more hikes this year and members who'd rather hold or cut.
**Thursday** — sentiment snapped back on concrete AI infrastructure news: $MU committed to $250B in U.S. investment through 2035 (up from $170B originally), $META announced it will manufacture its own custom AI chip from September and unveiled its Muse Spark 1.1 model, and SK Hynix priced its U.S. IPO more than 7x oversubscribed.
**Friday** — SK Hynix's Nasdaq debut opened over 14% above its IPO price, $NVDA rose ~4%, and $META jumped another 6%, capping a near-15% weekly gain — its best week since early 2024 — after a Bank of America note suggested Meta may be building AI capacity at a meaningfully lower cost per gigawatt than the Street expects.
The takeaway
The AI infrastructure trade is broadening beyond the handful of names that carried H1 into memory, storage, and vertically integrated compute — but geopolitics is back as a live risk, not a resolved one, and the Fed is still genuinely undecided heading into its July 28–29 meeting.
The week ahead: Q2 earnings season begins
This is the week Q2 earnings season actually starts, and it collides directly with the week's biggest macro print.
**Earnings, by day:**
- **Monday, July 13:** $FAST (an early industrial-demand bellwether)
- **Tuesday, July 14:** The banks lead — $C, $GS, $WFC, $JPM, $BAC
- **Wednesday, July 15:** $MS, $JNJ, $BLK, $PNC, $BK, $UAL, $JBHT, $CTAS, $ELV
- **Thursday, July 16** (busiest day): $NFLX, $UNH, $ABT, $USB, $TFC, $GE, $STT, $PLD, $CFG — Netflix is the one to watch as an early read on how "growth" names get judged this season
- **Friday, July 17:** quiet on earnings
Macro, by day
- **Tuesday, July 14, 8:30am ET — June CPI.** The single most important data point of the week, landing the same morning as the bank earnings. With the Fed openly split — Chair Warsh has called it a "family fight" — this print carries real weight for whether markets keep pricing a possible September hike.
- **Wednesday, July 15** — June PPI and the Empire State manufacturing index
- **Thursday, July 16** — a dense data day: jobless claims, Philly Fed index, June retail sales, pending home sales, NAHB housing index
- **Friday, July 17** — housing starts, industrial production, capacity utilization
Also worth flagging: Warsh testifies
Chair Warsh delivers his **first testimony on monetary policy before Congress, starting Tuesday** — one of the only chances all quarter to get him to engage directly on the hike-versus-hold debate, given how tight-lipped he's been since taking over (he skipped the June dot plot and stripped forward guidance from the post-meeting statement).
Why it matters
FactSet is modelling **22–24% YoY S&P 500 earnings growth** for Q2. With the banks reporting the same morning as CPI, and Warsh testifying the same day, this genuinely could be the week the Fed's internal debate starts to resolve one way or the other.
See our full July 2026 bank earnings preview and the visual July 2026 earnings calendar to plan around the cluster.
*Not investment advice. For informational and educational purposes only.*
Use this on Earnings Compass
- See the full Q2 2026 earnings calendar →Every S&P 500 name reporting this month, day by day, before-open vs after-close.
- JPMorgan (JPM) stock page →Bank earnings kick off Tuesday — JPM sets the tone.
- Netflix (NFLX) stock page →Thursday's print is the early read on how growth names get judged this season.
Frequently asked questions
- What were the key market moves the week of July 6–10, 2026?
- The Dow crossed 53,000 for the first time on Monday and closed the week at 52,637.01. The S&P 500 finished at 7,575.39 and the Nasdaq at 26,281.61 — both with weekly gains. Meta jumped ~15% (its best week since early 2024) on AI cost-efficiency commentary, and SK Hynix's U.S. IPO debuted 14% above its offer price.
- When do Q2 2026 bank earnings start?
- The big U.S. banks kick off Tuesday, July 14, 2026 before the open: Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, Wells Fargo, JPMorgan Chase, and Bank of America. Morgan Stanley follows Wednesday. See our full bank earnings preview for what matters this quarter.
- When is the June 2026 CPI report?
- June CPI lands Tuesday, July 14 at 8:30am ET — the same morning as the big-bank earnings. It is the most important macro print of the week given how split the Fed is on whether to hike, hold, or cut at the July 28–29 meeting.
- When does Netflix report Q2 2026 earnings?
- Netflix (NFLX) reports Thursday, July 16, 2026 — the busiest earnings day of the week, alongside UnitedHealth, Abbott Labs, GE Aerospace, and several regional banks. Netflix is the first big test of how the market judges growth-tier valuations this season.
- What is Fed Chair Warsh's Congressional testimony?
- Chair Kevin Warsh delivers his first Humphrey-Hawkins monetary policy testimony before Congress starting Tuesday, July 14. Since taking over he has skipped the June dot plot and stripped forward guidance — this is one of the only chances all quarter to hear him engage directly on the hike-vs-hold debate.