Earnings This Week (June 16–20, 2026): CarMax, Kroger & What to Trade

The week at a glance

Three earnings reports will steer trader sentiment this week:

• Tue Jun 17, pre-market — $KMX (CarMax): consensus EPS $0.94, a -31.9% YoY decline on roughly flat revenue. Used-car retail is the canary for high-rate consumer stress.

• Wed Jun 18, ~8:00 a.m. ET — $KR (Kroger): consensus EPS $1.58 (+6% YoY) on $45.4B revenue. The price war with Albertsons is over; margin commentary is the whole story.

• Wed Jun 18, after close — $DRI (Darden Restaurants): Q4 from the owner of Olive Garden, LongHorn and Cheddar's — your real-time read on casual-dining demand.

Trading window: pre-market for $KMX, intraday for $KR, after-hours for $DRI.

CarMax ($KMX) — Tue Jun 17 pre-market

The setup: consensus calls for $0.94 EPS, a -31.9% YoY drop on flat revenue. High rates have crushed used-vehicle financing and inventory carry costs are biting. Listen on the call for inventory liquidation language and used vehicle pricing trends — that's where the guidance shock usually lives.

Directional puts: enter before 7:30 a.m. ET to avoid pre-market spread blowouts. With the stock near $27.50, the $25–26 strike captures a downside surprise without paying for full tail. Exit 5–10 minutes after the 8 a.m. call ends — IV crush is faster than the move on most retail names.

Hedged strangle: sell the $28 call and buy the $26 put 1:1 to collect premium while keeping a defined downside hedge. Max profit if $KMX settles $26–28 through the session.

Risk management: used-car retail can gap 8–12% on guidance. Size with the Earnings Compass implied-move calculator on the $KMX page and cap loss at 15% from entry.

Kroger ($KR) — Wed Jun 18, 8:00 a.m. ET

The setup: $1.58 EPS, +6% YoY, on $45.4B revenue. The Street already expects growth — the trade is in the margin commentary. Inflation plus wage pressure has been compressing grocery margins; Kroger's forward guide will reset the entire consumer staples complex.

Bullish call spread: buy the $32 call and sell the $33.50 call. ~$150 risk for ~$150 max profit — clean risk/reward if same-store sales beat and the stock pops 3–4%. Plan to exit 2–3 hours after the open once early panic sellers are flushed.

IV-crush short straddle: sell the $31.50 straddle to capture IV collapse and theta over 2–3 days. Stop at ±5%. Not a beginner trade — you're short gamma into a print.

Pre-earnings drift: watch comp-sales chatter into Tuesday. If sell-side revises guidance higher in the final 48 hours, $KR can run 5–8% before the print. Wire that into Catalyst Radar so you're not refreshing Twitter.

Darden Restaurants ($DRI) — Wed Jun 18 after close

The setup: Q4 from Olive Garden / LongHorn / Cheddar's parent. $DRI is the cleanest single-name read on casual-dining demand, and the guide will steer the discretionary basket for the rest of the month.

Sector proxy: instead of single-name options into a holiday-quarter print, trade the broader restaurant complex via $XRT. If $DRI guides lower, the whole tape resets and the ETF gives you cleaner risk.

Calendar spread: if you have no directional view, sell the June 25 straddle and buy the July 25 straddle. Defined max loss (the strike width), positive theta in the front month, and you keep optionality on the post-earnings trend.

Pre-market checklist (run this before 7:30 a.m. ET)

• Pull implied moves for $KMX, $KR, $DRI from their stock pages.

• Mark the directional break levels above and below the implied move.

• Cap single-name earnings risk at 2% of account equity.

• Enter 10–15 minutes before the print to avoid pre-market slippage.

• Exit 30–60 minutes after the release — the trade is the volatility expansion, not the hold.

Why this week matters for your portfolio

$KMX down -31.9% YoY is a consumer-credit signal. If management guides used-vehicle demand lower, expect ripple effects in auto insurers (falling premiums), used-car rental ($HTZ, $CAR), and consumer credit lenders.

$KR margin guidance tells you whether grocery inflation has peaked and reprices the entire staples shelf.

$DRI is the canary for casual-dining demand and broader consumer health. A weak guide pushes recession odds back into the macro narrative.

Trade sizing: the right way

$25,000 account, trading $KMX puts.

Wrong: 10 contracts of the $26 put for ~$300–500 total. Technically 2% risk, but zero room for slippage before your stop trips.

Right: cap loss at $500 (2%), buy 5 contracts of the $26 put for ~$250 premium, set the stop at the $27 put price for breathing room, and pre-commit to exit at +50% ($375) or -100% ($250).

If the Earnings Compass implied move flags 8% on $KMX, the $26 strike is probably too aggressive — step in to the $27 put for higher probability of profit.

Real-world timing example

Tue 7:45 a.m. ET — print is 15 minutes away. Your $26 put is bid $2.80 against a $3.00 fill. Do nothing — IV is about to spike.

Tue 8:05 a.m. ET — $KMX prints -31.9% EPS and guides Q2 vehicle demand lower. Stock is down 6%, the put is $4.50. Exit and bank the +50%. The money is in the volatility expansion right after the print — most traders sit through the IV collapse and watch winners give back.

How Earnings Compass helps this week

AI Morning Briefing surfaces $KMX implied move in dollars (not just percent), $KR seasonal patterns, and $DRI insider activity ahead of the call.

Catalyst Radar flags unusual options activity, pre-earnings analyst moves, and live guidance revisions on each ticker.

Push notifications keep you on the clock — pre-market release times, conference call start (when IV collapses), and director-level insider buys.

Key takeaways

• $KMX = consumer-weakness signal — put spreads favored.

• $KR = margin story — call spread if you're constructive on the guide.

• $DRI = macro health check — prefer sector trades over single-name options.

• Cap earnings risk at 2% of account.

• Exits matter more than entries — close 30–60 minutes after the print.

FAQs

Should I trade earnings without options approval? Yes — buy shares ahead of the print for the higher-probability long, sell into the first 30 minutes of strength. Otherwise use defined-risk put/call spreads.

How far out should I buy earnings options? Same-week expiration captures peak IV. Avoid daily/weekly expiries (gamma risk). Use the front-month if your timing is fuzzy.

What if earnings don't move the stock? Theta is real. If price hasn't moved 30 minutes after the print, exit — don't hold for a delayed move.

How do I know if my size is right? If you're losing sleep, you're too big. If you don't care, you're too small. The sweet spot is mild adrenaline, not panic.